On-Chain Data Signals Transition to Early Bitcoin Bull Market, Says Analyst James Check

Bitcoin's underlying market dynamics have shifted away from bear market capitulation into an early bull market transition phase, according to on-chain analyst James Check. Speaking in a recent interview, Check pointed to significant changes in on-chain capital distribution following recent price rallies from the mid-$60,000 range into the high $80,000s. At the summer market low near $58,000, only 8% of invested capital in Bitcoin was in profit—a level historically consistent with macro bear market bottoms. Following recent upward moves, that metric has surged to over 55%, building market confidence and providing a supportive structural tailwind.

Check noted that short-term and long-term holder behaviors indicate a classic transition into an early bull cycle. During bear markets, recent buyers consistently panic or sell near breakeven during price rebounds. In contrast, those who accumulated near $64,000 during periods of intense market uncertainty have shown strong conviction. Current market dynamics demonstrate that buyers are consistently stepping in during pullbacks to buy the dip, absorbing remaining sell side and replacing breakeven selling with normal profit-taking.

Institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has mirrored this broader market cycle. During the mid-year selloff in July, up to 90% of ETF inflows were underwater, triggering roughly $8 billion in outflows at the local low. Flow data has since reversed sharply, registering weekly inflows of over $2.2 billion. Check emphasized that Bitcoin's ability to maintain price strength while facing macroeconomic friction—such as rising bond yields and selloffs in traditional assets like gold—points to genuine asset demand and seller exhaustion as the market eyes the $100,000 psychological price target.