On-Chain Data and Liquidity Trends Signal Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Say Blockware Analysts
Blockware analysts Mitchell Askew and John Haar argue that key on-chain metrics and global macro indicators suggest Bitcoin has reached its cyclical floor. They anticipate a capital rotation back into Bitcoin as AI equities cool down.
Bitcoin's price is likely at or near its market cycle bottom, according to Blockware analysts Mitchell Askew and John Haar. Speaking on what caused the multi-month disconnect between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin's lower price action, the analysts pointed to capital being diverted into high-flying artificial intelligence equities. Despite recent volatility and chop, Askew expressed strong confidence that Bitcoin will not experience the typical 75% drawdown seen in prior bear markets, pointing to $60,000 as a reliable double bottom.
Capitulation Signals on the Blockchain
Several factors contributed to Bitcoin's recent weakness, including profit-taking by long-term original whales, corporate treasury adjustments, and bitcoin miners shifting operational capacity toward AI high-performance computing. However, on-chain capitulation metrics reflect conditions historically aligned with cycle floors. Data tracking unrealized losses across UTXOs, short-term holder cost basis rejections, and reduced transfer volume from long-term holders indicate that selling pressure from large entities has largely dissipated.
Looking ahead, the analysts anticipate a favorable capital rotation back into Bitcoin toward the end of the year. With institutional miners pivoting infrastructure to AI, global hash rate growth has stagnated, lowering difficulty and boosting profit margins for remaining network participants. As AI equities face valuation pullbacks and global interest rate expectations soften, capital is expected to return to scarce liquid assets, positioning Bitcoin for a renewed upward trajectory.