X Post Flags Midterm-Year Market Drawdowns, but Its 2022 Figure Is Missing
An X post by @arvyMacroCycles argues that every U.S. midterm election year over the past 50 years brought a market drawdown, listing declines from 8% to 35% between 1974 and 2018. The post gives no 2022 figure in the supplied text, and it does not identify which market the percentages describe.
Key takeaways
- The post lists nine midterm-year drawdowns from 1974 to 2018.
- The largest listed decline is 35% in 1974.
- The smallest listed decline is 8% in 1994.
- The supplied text names 2022 but gives no drawdown percentage.
- The post does not specify which market its figures describe.
An X post by @arvyMacroCycles claims that every U.S. midterm election year over the past 50 years included a market drawdown. It lists declines for years from 1974 through 2018, ranging from 8% in 1994 to 35% in 1974.
The post ends with “2022 Biden” but the supplied text contains no percentage for that year; its linked material is not included here. It also does not say which market the figures refer to, so they should not be read as a verified prediction for crypto or any particular asset.
What drawdowns does the post list?
The post gives these figures: 1974, 35%; 1978, 15%; 1982, 17%; 1990, 20%; 1994, 8%; 1998, 22%; 2002, 34%; 2010, 17%; and 2018, 20%. It labels each year with the U.S. president at the time.
Those percentages are presented as drawdowns, not necessarily full-year losses. A drawdown measures a fall from a market peak to a later low, and can happen even if an asset eventually ends the year higher.
Does this show crypto will fall in a midterm year?
No. The post does not name an asset or index, explain how the figures were calculated, or establish that election timing caused the declines. It therefore offers no direct evidence about Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
For crypto holders, the useful distinction is between historical context and a forecast: a past market pattern cannot tell you whether a particular token will fall, or by how much. The missing 2022 figure and unspecified market make the post especially difficult to assess without its underlying data.
Frequently asked questions
What drawdowns does the midterm-year X post list?
It lists declines of 35% in 1974, 15% in 1978, 17% in 1982, 20% in 1990, 8% in 1994, 22% in 1998, 34% in 2002, 17% in 2010, and 20% in 2018.
Does the post say what happened in 2022?
The supplied text ends with “2022 Biden” but includes no percentage for that year. The linked material is not provided, so the 2022 figure cannot be confirmed from this text.
Does this mean crypto will fall during a midterm election year?
No such conclusion follows from the post. It does not identify the market behind the numbers or show that election timing caused the declines, so it is not a specific forecast for Bitcoin or other crypto.