Ben Cowen Concedes Market Shift as Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance to Reset Bearish Setup
Crypto analyst Ben Cowen told Real Vision's Kris Bullock that Bitcoin's unexpected move above its May high and 50-week moving average has shifted market momentum back to the bulls.
In an appearance on Real Vision Alpha with host Kris Bullock, crypto analyst Ben Cowen acknowledged that Bitcoin's market setup has fundamentally changed after the digital asset unexpectedly surged past its May high. Cowen admitted his prior expectation for Bitcoin to put in a deeper correction later in the year was incorrect. By extending above its 50-week moving average with clear follow-through, Cowen noted that the burden of proof in the market has shifted away from the bulls and back onto the bears.
Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin's performance in the current midterm year has held up significantly better than historical averages, which typically see pullbacks of roughly 50% from the yearly open. Instead, prices have hovered near open levels, driven by a different investor pool compared to past cycles. Bullock noted that record-setting spot ETF inflows demonstrate strong institutional demand, replacing the typical retail-driven euphoria that often precedes major market tops. Cowen added that Bitcoin has demonstrated unique strength by rallying despite a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated bond yields.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Cowen pointed to the spread between the Fed funds rate and two-year Treasury yields, noting that effective policy conditions have turned more accommodative in recent months. While he acknowledged that a stock market correction could cause a temporary pullback in crypto prices, he stressed that a drop would likely establish a higher low rather than a new macro low. Addressing altcoins, Cowen noted that while accommodative liquidity is providing an initial tailwind for alternative assets, a future parabolic run by Bitcoin would likely push Bitcoin market dominance higher once again.