44 stories about Prediction Markets from across the crypto press, curated and summarized daily. Most recent: Oct 11, 2026.
The CFTC has proposed formally including certain prediction-market event contracts in the legal definition of swaps, bringing them under the agency’s oversight. The proposal covers markets tied to sports, politics, culture and weather, while a separate interim rule excludes casino-style gambling contracts.
Blockchain.com has filed for designated contract market and futures commission merchant licenses with the CFTC, aiming to operate its own regulated prediction markets and crypto derivatives in the US. The NFL separately filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to hear a case arguing that Kalshi's sports contracts are gambling, not swaps.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has stated that major prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi lack proper authorization to operate in the EU. The regulator also questioned why these platforms block some EU countries but not others, and noted that VPNs can easily bypass these restrictions. Additionally, ESMA warned that prediction markets are "rife with inside trading."
A U.S. appeals court ruled that states have the power to regulate prediction markets, setting up a potential Supreme Court showdown. This decision affects platforms like Kalshi, which offers event contracts on political and cultural outcomes.
Prediction markets are decentralized platforms where users bet on future events, creating real-time data on public sentiment. These markets are challenging traditional institutions by offering more accurate forecasts than polls or experts.
The CFTC will hold a meeting on August 20 to discuss crypto regulations, AI, and prediction markets. This follows the SEC's recent focus on crypto, highlighting a broader regulatory push without new legislation.
Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo says digital asset innovation will advance regardless of whether Congress passes the Clarity Act. In a wide-ranging interview, he also addressed prediction markets, financial privacy, and the regulatory outlook in Washington.
Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory announced at a recent conference that the company will apply for a designated contract market license from the CFTC in August to launch a prediction market platform.
Fanatics has bought a regulated exchange to build its own prediction market platform. This move comes as event-based trading grows in popularity across sports, finance, and crypto. The deal gives Fanatics control over its trading infrastructure, allowing it to offer more customized and compliant prediction markets.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a stern warning to prediction market platforms, cautioning them against using generic self-certification templates. This advisory comes amid concerns that firms are cutting corners in their compliance efforts.
Robinhood is in talks to let users trade yes-or-no contracts through Crypto.com's derivatives business, though no deal has been reached yet. The move comes as Robinhood competes with Kalshi in the prediction market space.
Hyperliquid is introducing permissionless prediction markets, first on testnet and later on mainnet, as part of the HIP-4 upgrade.
A new Stanford study found that Polymarket's 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets can be manipulated around settlement times. Researchers suggest longer settlement windows could help prevent this issue.
North Carolina's new budget law defers oversight of prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket to the CFTC, taxing them at just 6%. This move sets a lower tax rate compared to other states' proposals.
Polymarket has applied to offer margin trading to U.S. customers, following a similar approval granted to Kalshi in March. This could expand trading options but also introduces higher risks for users.
Rising interest in Solana-network memecoins and prediction markets was followed by a rally in SOL price. Will the momentum continue?
U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on Polymarket’s political prediction markets over the past year, despite the platform being legally barred from serving them. The bets focused on foreign conflicts not available on U.S. platforms.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has warned that many prediction market contracts could already be prohibited for retail investors under EU financial rules. The regulator is cracking down on companies that market binary-style products as event contracts to avoid derivative regulations.
The European Union is moving to block retail investors from participating in prediction markets, citing concerns over their classification as derivatives. Regulators emphasize that the function of these products, not their labels, determines compliance with financial regulations.
A bipartisan group of senators is calling for a CFTC investigation into Polymarket following reports that the platform paid creators to stage fake winning bets, raising concerns about market manipulation and transparency.
Polymarket has updated its hack losses to $3.1 million. The platform is also facing investigations over potential false or deceptive marketing practices. Users are awaiting promised refunds.
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff have raised concerns about Polymarket's advertising, calling it deceptive and urging the CFTC to investigate, highlighting a 'troubling' report and potential enforcement gaps.
A group of 17 Democratic senators has criticized the CFTC for suing state regulators over prediction markets, calling it an “assault” on state oversight. The senators argue that states should have the authority to regulate these markets within their jurisdictions.
A new bill aims to prevent lawmakers and their families from trading on prediction markets using insider knowledge. This move targets potential conflicts of interest in policy-related betting.