Bitwise Sets Bitcoin's 2036 Base-Case Target at $1.6 Million
Bitwise's new decade-long forecast puts bitcoin at $1.6 million by 2036 in its base case, implying annualized returns of 34%. The firm's scenarios range widely: $130,686 in a bear case and $3.67 million in a bull case.
Key takeaways
- Bitwise's base-case bitcoin target is $1.6 million by 2036.
- Bitwise projects 34% annualized returns over the next decade in its base case.
- Bitwise's bear-case target is $130,686 by 2036.
- Bitwise's bull-case bitcoin target is $3.67 million.
Bitwise has set a base-case price target of $1.6 million for bitcoin by 2036, projecting annualized returns of 34% over the next decade. The firm's estimate is a forecast, not a guaranteed outcome, and its scenarios span a wide range.
How far apart are Bitwise's bitcoin scenarios?
Bitwise's bear case puts bitcoin at $130,686 by 2036, while its bull case reaches $3.67 million. The base-case target sits between those outcomes at $1.6 million.
That spread is important context: the headline target depends on which scenario plays out, and the description does not provide the assumptions behind each case. The 34% annualized-return projection should therefore be read as Bitwise's modelled base case, not a promised return.
What does the forecast mean for bitcoin holders?
The projection offers a long-range view, but it does not tell holders what bitcoin will do next month or next year. For someone considering a purchase, the three scenarios underline how much the result depends on the future—and how large the potential downside is relative to the base case.
Bitwise's outlook is also notably more bullish than a recent JPMorgan forecast of roughly 10% annual bitcoin returns. The difference is a useful reminder that long-term crypto forecasts can vary substantially even when they cover a similar horizon. The concrete point to compare is not just the target price, but the assumptions and risks each forecast uses.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitwise's bitcoin price target for 2036?
Bitwise's base-case target is $1.6 million per bitcoin by 2036.
What are Bitwise's bear and bull cases for bitcoin?
Bitwise's bear case puts bitcoin at $130,686 by 2036, while its bull case reaches $3.67 million.
How much annual bitcoin return does Bitwise forecast?
Bitwise projects 34% annualized returns over the next decade in its base case. This is a forecast, not a guaranteed return.