Bitcoin Tests Critical 50-Week Moving Average After 25% Surge, Says Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin has surged 25% following announcements from the U.S. Treasury regarding expanded bond buybacks and Treasury General Account strategy, driving broad gains across the cryptocurrency market. The rapid upward movement pushed Ethereum up nearly 30% alongside double-digit rallies in various altcoins. However, technical analyst and Into the Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen notes that while macro liquidity news helped spark the initial move, much of the immediate buying pressure was driven by forced short-side liquidations rather than aggressive spot accumulation.

## Crucial Resistance at the 50-Week Moving Average According to Cowen, Bitcoin's recovery has brought price action directly up to its 50-week moving average, positioned near the $80,000 to $81,000 range. Historically, sustaining multiple weekly closes above this level has marked the definitive end of bear market conditions in prior cycles. Conversely, rejections at the 50-week moving average—similar to market behavior observed in 2015 and 2018—preceded retracements toward realized price levels in the lower $50,000 range. Consequently, Cowen views weekly closes around the low-$80,000s as the critical benchmark for confirming whether a macro bottom is established.

On-chain metrics monitored by Cowen show that overall whale activity remains notably subdued compared to major market bottoms in 2018 and 2022. Without a clear increase in whale positioning or sustained spot market demand to replace liquidation-driven momentum, Bitcoin could still face vulnerability if traditional equity markets experience seasonal corrections during the fourth quarter. Despite short-term uncertainties, Cowen reiterated that historical patterns favor accumulating Bitcoin throughout the second half of midterm years in preparation for potential market expansion in subsequent years.