Arthur Hayes Links Bitcoin Breakout to Implicit U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Control
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes attributes Bitcoin's rally toward $70,000 to the U.S. Treasury doubling its long-term debt buybacks, framing the move as implicit yield curve control. Hayes also shared tactical bets on Ethereum and announced his new AI project, Flop Labs.
Bitcoin surged past its 200-day moving average toward $70,000 after an 80-day consolidation period, sparked by the U.S. Treasury's unexpected announcement that it would double the size of its long-dated debt buybacks. In a joint interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained that buying back long-term Treasury yields to defend against rates hitting 5% functions as a de facto implementation of yield curve control. Hayes stated that this policy expands the money supply to artificially keep borrowing costs suppressed, creating a macro environment where scarce assets like Bitcoin, gold, and equities rally in response to fiat debasement.
Hayes noted that he has shifted to a heavy risk-on posture across his portfolio, emphasizing altcoin trades alongside core Bitcoin holdings. Specifically, he identified Ethereum as an attractive swing-trade target due to its underperformance relative to historical highs, coupled with its central position in decentralized finance and real-world asset tokenization. He also reiterated a bullish thesis on yield-generating protocol Ethena, pointing out that a rising Bitcoin price expands futures basis yields, which directly drives revenue back into delta-neutral yield mechanisms.
In addition to his market analysis, Hayes revealed he is coming out of retirement to lead Flop Labs, a project building infrastructure for autonomous AI agents. Flop Labs aims to establish a decentralized network providing GPU compute power and persistent memory storage for AI entities, using a native token called FLOP for network transactions and block rewards. Designed without VC pre-sales, the project plans to distribute roughly 20% of its 10-year token supply through a 90-day community airdrop commencing in late October.